Is this the year I want to own Dwight Howard?

Let's get the good stuff out of the way. Dwight is a flat out beast:
- his body is mature like a 26 year old but is 22 years old and doesn't miss games
- qualifies as a center
- will grab you at least 12 boards a game (and if everything pans right, show flashes of a Kevin Willis at a sick 15 rebounds a game season)
- will carry your fantasy squad with FG% at least a 54% clip
- I can see his assists raising to at least over 2 a game, possibly 3 (Dwight averaged 2.5 assists a game last season in March and April)
- will increase BOTH his steals and blocks this year
- and word is, he's worked extremely hard on his spot up shooting, free throw shooting and passing out of the post

What's not to love? I personally still think that the free throw shooting optimism is a little bit over blown. I would not bet on him being ready to shot at a 74% clip for the whole season. While the ceiling for that is low, the downfall is a long way down. At 8 ft attempts a game (possibly more this year) if he shots 66%, that will create quite the hit on your points standing. If he shots 59%, you would need to be cleaning house in all the other categories to win your fantasy league title. Let's also not forget the turnovers. I think there is no chance he can drastically improve statistically on that category this year. You don't just shave 1 or 2 turnovers from your average. It comes from years of basketball experience and knowledge.

So with all that said, do I want to own Howard this year? I would have to say no. Through out all my years of fantasy basketball, I've rarely seen a Shaq lead team win a well balanced and competitive league. It just doesn't happen that easily. Sure Dwight is slightly different, because he has a CHANCE of improving his ft shooting (unlike Shaq in the past). But you would need too many other things to go right. The situation has to be recognized for what it is, if you have Dwight Howard, you will be risking bad performances in ft’s and turnovers. I would pass on Dwight in the first or second round but possibly look to draft him in the mid 3rd if he's still out there. At 3rd round value, I would play him out a month and see if he really has improved and play it by game.